The New Moveable Voters: Why 2026 Polls Miss the Mark
by Allie Walker
Gather ‘round, sheeple, and put on your tin hats. It’s time to talk about polling in the 2026 election.
Like my boss, I believe the polls this cycle aren’t telling the full story. However, we disagree on which story is being ignored.
I have one theory that I expect to play out in this election: we’re following outdated playbooks for who is moveable. And, there are two big reasons why.
Reason No. 1: The Middle Has Moved
Let’s start with reason number one: the middle has moved. Polls operate on the idea of finding the “moveable middle.” This is normally the 2–3 percent of voters who are likely to vote and can be swayed toward either candidate. Traditionally, this group is thought of as sitting in the “middle,” the moderates on the political spectrum between Democrats and Republicans.
But here’s the deal: I don’t think that’s where the moveables live anymore. The political spectrum we’ve always seen as a line, from fully conservative on the far right to progressive Democrat on the far left, is actually a circle. And on that circle, the two extremes meet. Today, a lot of that meeting point goes by the name “MAGA.”
My theory is that the moveable voters aren’t in the middle of the line. They live where the two ends meet to close the circle. Those are exactly the people polls traditionally ignore, because voters at the extremes are assumed to be locked in. Why do I think they’re the new moveable voters? Because they’re the voters who are mad enough to cast ballots that upset the status quo.
Reason No. 2: The Snapshot Keeps Getting Faster
My second reason is a little more mainstream and starts with the old adage, “Polls are just a snapshot in time.” That’s true. But what I think we’re not accounting for is that the shutter speed on that snapshot keeps getting faster. I think we’re missing micro-moments that are shaping the mail-in and early vote. I don’t know how to fix that, but my theory is simply: it’s happening.
How We’ll Know: Watch Kent County
So, how will we know if I’m right?
Here’s what I’m going to look at: the number of votes cast in individual races in Kent County. My prediction is that in Kent County, Jocelyn Benson will win for governor, Abdul El-Sayed will win for Senate, and Terri DeBoer will win for Congress (in the parts of Kent County that include MI-3). AND I think El-Sayed and DeBoer will receive significantly more votes than Benson. Why? Because I think people will turn out to vote for the candidates at the edges, which is where I think the new movables are, and the people who do that will refuse to vote for the traditional candidate.
As I tell my kids, you have to have a hypothesis to know whether you’re right or wrong. Either way, we’ll learn more about who is voting and where the new movables might actually be after November 3.