The polls will be wrong. Again. Here’s why Mike Rogers will win.
by John Truscott
Every cycle, after the votes are counted, I wonder whether this will be the last election in which people believe the polls. Every time, we end up right back where we started. The media chronicles every poll, every day, credible or not, even as polls grow less reliable.
News stories use polls to define the horse race rather than focusing on the issues that define a candidate. The language belongs at a sporting event, not in one of our most important responsibilities as citizens.
If polls were accurate, Hillary Clinton would have been president. But the public takes them as gospel, so when the polls are wrong, people are quick to believe the system was rigged.
Polls Spot Trends, Not Winners
Polls are good at spotting trends and shifts in voter sentiment. They can even tell us what color people like most. But they are no longer good at predicting a close race.
As we often say, the only poll that matters is on Election Day — or, with early voting, the days leading up to it. Most close races stay close right up until the votes are counted.
Michigan’s Senate Race Isn’t as Close as It Looks
In Michigan, we’re witnessing the hottest U.S. Senate race we’ve ever had, with Republican Mike Rogers facing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. The outcome will likely decide control of the Senate. Spending will break records, and the entire nation is watching.
This is where my thesis comes in: The race isn’t as close as the national media portrays it, for reasons the experts and pundits don’t seem to grasp — or don’t care to.
Here is my take: Young progressives love to answer polls; it gives them a sense of power. They will vote in strong numbers. But they are far outnumbered by voters over 50, who turn out reliably, tend to be more conservative, and typically don’t answer polls because they don’t trust pollsters.
As a result, pollsters are overestimating the progressive vote. Keep in mind that a poll doesn’t measure votes; pollsters weight respondents to match who they expect will turn out. It’s an imperfect guessing game that gets worse every cycle.
Democratic Voting Blocs Are Splintering
Traditional Democratic voting blocs are also splintering. Jewish leaders have been vocal in their opposition to El-Sayed, something I’ve never witnessed, and Jewish voters are crossing over to Rogers in large numbers. Meanwhile, I’m hearing some Detroit leaders and Black pastors are telling people it’s OK to skip the Senate race. The last time I saw that was in 1990, when a large bloc of Black voters stayed home for Gov. Jim Blanchard’s reelection bid. It cost him the race.
Then there are traditional Democratic loyalists, who see what’s happening to their party. If El-Sayed wins, the Democratic Socialist takeover will be complete. To their credit, they’re fighting back.
Rogers Has the Stronger Ground Game
Rogers also has a stronger ground game. His organization has knocked on more than 3 million doors and knows those voters well. Every cycle, we hear how good the Democratic ground game is, though it rarely lives up to the hype. This year, we’re not even hearing that.
The final factor is one I’ve watched for decades: Republican voters come home late. Many sit in the undecided column until about three weeks out, then rapidly return to their roots. Unlike Elissa Slotkin two years ago, El-Sayed is not the kind of candidate who can persuade them to cross over.
While President Trump’s unpopularity may drag down Republicans in other races, the Senate race defies conventional wisdom. Slotkin had the ability to attract crossover voters, and the Trump factor would have turbocharged her vote. But El-Sayed is not Slotkin, so the Trump factor will be minimized.
The Bottom Line
I predict Rogers wins by at least 4 points, which, in a year like this in Michigan, is a landslide.